Service — Growth Modeling

Predict what happens before you spend.

Build the predictive layer that tells you which customers are worth acquiring and what they'll be worth over time.

LTV forecasting, propensity models, and CAC optimization.

Growth modeling turns your historical customer data into forward-looking intelligence. We build the predictive layer that tells you which customers are worth acquiring, how much to pay for them, and what they'll be worth over time.

  • LTV Forecasting
  • Customer Propensity Models
  • CAC Optimization
  • Cohort Analysis
  • Churn Prediction
  • Revenue Forecasting

Is this you?

You might need this if…

You're scaling acquisition spend but CAC keeps climbing with no clear ceiling in sight.

You can't reliably forecast next quarter's revenue because your data lives in disconnected silos.

You know some customers are worth more than others but you have no model to act on that.

Leadership asks what happens if we increase budget by 20% and you have to guess.

What we deliver

Four concrete outputs

01

LTV Forecast Model

A cohort-based lifetime value model that projects revenue by acquisition channel, customer segment, and time horizon — giving you a defensible number for CAC targets.

LTV Cohort Analysis Revenue
02

Customer Propensity Model

A scored model identifying which leads or prospects are most likely to convert, retain, or churn — so your team focuses energy where it compounds.

Propensity Churn Prediction Scoring
03

CAC Optimization Report

A channel-by-channel analysis of your true blended CAC versus LTV ratio, with specific budget reallocation recommendations to improve payback period.

CAC Payback Period Budget
04

24-Month Revenue Forecast

A scenario-based revenue model incorporating seasonality, cohort retention, and spend assumptions — built in a format your finance team can actually use.

Forecasting Seasonality Finance-Ready

How it works

Three phases. One playbook.

Phase 01

The Audit

We inventory your customer data, CRM records, and transaction history to understand cohort behavior and identify the inputs needed for reliable modeling.

The Audit Report
Phase 02

The Build

We build and validate the LTV, propensity, and CAC models against your historical data, tuning for your specific business model and sales cycle.

The 90-Day Data Roadmap
Phase 03

The Playbook

You receive working models, documented assumptions, and a plain-language playbook for applying the outputs to acquisition decisions each quarter.

The Decision Playbook
31% Average improvement in CAC-to-LTV ratio within 90 days of implementing model-driven budget allocation
+/-8% Median forecast accuracy variance on 12-month revenue projections vs. actual results

The LTV model changed how we thought about paid acquisition entirely. We'd been underinvesting in our highest-value cohort by a factor of two because we were optimizing for first-order ROAS instead of 12-month value.

— VP of Growth, D2C E-Commerce Brand

Ready to know what your customers are actually worth?

Book a free 30-minute strategy call. We'll walk through your current data setup and tell you which models would have the highest impact on your growth decisions.

Not ready to talk? Explore our free diagnostic tools and see where the gaps are before we speak.